应用模糊模式识别模型计算分析辽河中下游水安全状况

Application of fuzzy pattern recognition model to water security analysis in the lower and middle sections of the Liaohe River

采用陈守煜模糊模式识别模型对辽河流域水安全状况进行了计算与分析。结果表明,从1995至2005,辽河流域总体水安全状况均在较不安全程度向较安全程度过渡,尤其是2005年水安全级别特征值都处于2～3级之间,其中沈阳、鞍山、抚顺、本溪和辽阳水安全级别值越来越大,变化趋势较好,辽阳水安全程度提升较快,但是鞍山和抚顺水安全程度较低,属于较不安全区。大石桥2000年水安全级别特征值为2.69591,比1995年和2005年稍低一些,但还是较安全的。盘锦2005年水安全级别值特征值为2.9505,比1995年和2000年稍低一些,但一直是较安全的。1995年和2000年铁岭水安全级别值特征值在1.5左右,水安全状况较差,但是近年来水安全级别特征值都有所上升,水安全程度有所提升。最后从压力-状态-响应框架分析了水安全的变化原因。

The fuzzy pattem recognition model developed by Chen Shouyu was applied to the analysis of the water security of the Liaohe River. The results show that the water security status in the Liaohe River changed from insecure to secure from 1995 to 2005, and the characteristic values of water security in 2005 ranged from Grade 2 to Grade 3. The characteristic values of the water security of Shenyang City, Anshan City, Fushun City, Benxi City and Liaoyang City gradually increased. The water security degree of Liaoyang was rising rapidly, but the water security degree of Anshan City and Fushun City were still low and insecure in 2005. The characteristic value of Dashiqiao City in 2000 was 2.69591, lower than that in 1995 and 2005, but the water security degree in 2000 was still secure. The characteristic value of Panjin City in 2005 was 2.9505, lower than that in 1995 and 2000, but the water security degree in 2005 was still secure. The water security degree of Tieling City, whose characteristic value in 1995 and 2000 was about 1.5, was insecure, but the characteristic value of water security had gradually increased more recently, and the water security degree had increased accordingly. Finally the reasons of water security variation are analyzed based on the pressure-stateresponse concept.