基于盲数理论的水库生态需水量化分析

Quantitative analysis of ecological water requirement for reservoirs based on blind number theory

在界定水库生态需水的概念及内涵后,运用盲数理论对水库生态需水进行量化研究,并在双溪水库得到验证和应用。双溪水库枯水期最小生态需水量为1626.4万m3,对应生态水位为369.6 m,总可信度为90.2%;枯水期近10%的低于生态水位调水有使生态有逆向演替倾向。枯水期、平水期双溪水库生态系统处于半稳定状态,丰水期库岸生态处于正常状态,呈顺向演替。

Based on the introduction of the concept and meaning of ecological water requirement （EWR） for reservoirs, the blind number theory was applied to calculate the EWR for the Shuangxi Reservoir. The minimum EWR of the Shuangxi Reservoir ecosystem is 16.264 million m3 with a reliability of 90.2 %, corresponding to an ecological water level of 369.6 m. About ten percent of water diversion projects lower than the minimum EWR during dry seasons enables the tendency of retrogressive succession. The ecosystem of the Shuangxi Reservoir is in a quasi-steady state during dry seasons and normal seasons, and is in a steady state and progressive succession during flood seasons.