最优国债发行规模与财政政策合理性研究

A Research on the Optimal Issuing Scale of Treasury Bonds and Rationality of Fiscal Policy

从理论上分析,当经济低于潜在增长率水平时,才存在增发国债的必要性;从可操作层面分析,国债发行的最优规模应该等于满足各种投资需求并扣除了"消费基金"之后的银行储蓄余额。我国急剧增长的国债发行量已经超出了最优规模。持续多年的扩张性积极财政政策由于未能及时作出调整,政策效果已经不明显,反而加剧了我国经济的波动,造成国民经济过热趋势。所以,必须对财政政策作出调整,合理控制国债发行规模,并将国债投资的重心转移到通过投资乘数的效应带动民间投资和消费之上。

Theoretically, when the economy is below the potential growth level there is the need for issuing additional treasury bonds. Practically, the optimal issuing scale of treasury bonds should be equal to bank savings balance after the needs of a variety of investment and the deduction of ＂Consuming Fund＂. China＇s rapidly growing issuance of treasury bonds has exceeded the optimal size. Years of expanding and active fiscal policy fails to be adjusted timely, so this policy has had little effect; factually it is aggravating the national economic fluctuations and has caused economic overheating trend. Therefore, fiscal policy must be adjusted and the issuing scale of the issuance of treasury bonds should be under the reasonable control. In addition, treasury bonds should shift the investment to private investment and consumption which has multiplying effect through investment.