欧佩克减产促价政策及其前景分析

OPEC's policy of cutting production to boost prices and its future

欧佩克从1982年开始把产量限额制度作为调节产量和影响价格的工具,其限产促价政策的成功往往需要以获得非欧佩克国家的合作为重要条件。由于美国次贷危机已演变为一场影响全球经济的金融危机,造成世界经济增长减缓并导致石油供求基本面发生变化,欧佩克为了阻止石油价格的进一步下滑,保持成员国石油收入最大化,维护政治社会稳定以及在与大国博弈中的优势,做出了从11月1日起减少日产量限额150万桶的决定。由于国际政治经济局势中含有许多不利于油价回升的因素,非欧佩克对于是否配合减产态度不明朗,以及欧佩克内部在减产问题上的利益矛盾和石油输出国海外资产的制约,此次欧佩克减产促价政策能否产生预期的效果还是一个未知数。对石油输出国来说,原油价格上涨所带来的收益远远超过低油价下增产所带来的收益,因此,欧佩克会继续采取限产的政策,并努力尝试使油价达到其期望的70～90美元/桶的新的目标价格。

In 1982,OPEC began using a production quota system to regulate production and influence oil prices.In order to succeed,this policy of limiting output to boost prices often depended on cooperation from non-OPEC members.In response to the U.S.sub-prime loan crisis,which had already mushroomed into a financial crisis with a global impact,OPEC decided to cut daily output by 1.5 million barrels beginning November 1.This represented an effort to prevent oil prices from sliding further,to maximize oil revenues for member countries,and to maintain political and social stability as well as OPEC' s competitive advantages over major nations.It is not clear whether this policy will produce its anticipated effect,since many factors in the international political landscape work against a resurgence in oil prices,and non-OPEC members have not taken a clear stance on whether to assist in the policy;as well,within OPEC there are conflicts of interest over cutting production,and petroleum exporters are restricted by overseas assets.For petroleum exporters,a rise in crude oil prices will generate far more revenue than a rise in production while prices remain low.Accordingly,OPEC will continue its policy of limiting production and work for a target oil price of US $70-90 per barrel.