国际贸易中对一国出口优势的全面衡量与分析——整体出口优势指数的模型界定、推论及含义

Comprehensive Measuring and Analyzing of the Export Competence Advantage of One Country in the Foreign Trade——The Model,Inference and Interpretation of the Comprehensive Export Competence Index

为了全面分析一个国家的出口实力,有必要在商品出口优势指数的基础上,建立整体出口优势指数,其测量方法是赋予每种出口商品一定的权重,然后将所有出口商品的出口优势指数加总。从指数模型导出两个推论,其一是一国出口商品集中度越高,则越有利于其整体出口优势的提升;其二是一国出口商品越具稀缺性,则越有利于其整体出口优势的提升。运用该指数对国家出口优势进行全面衡量,有助于正确评估一国的出口产品结构,从而适时调整其对外贸易策略。但该指数也存在局限性。影响一国贸易的因素很多,有时并不是整体出口优势指标越大越好。

To analyze the export competence advantage of one country, this paper gives the concept of the comprehensive export competence index （CEC Index） on the base of the goods export competence index, whose value was the weigh sum of the goods export competence index value according to the rate of every kind of goods in the country＇s total export amount. Then two inferences were drawn from the index model. The first inference was that the more the concentration of one country＇s export goods, the more the country＇s CEC Index. The second inference was that the more the scarcity of one country＇s export goods, the more its CEC Index. To apply the CEC index can help one country evaluate correctly its export structure of goods and adjust timely its strategy of foreign trade. But the index had its shortcomings too.