非加速型通货膨胀下的失业率研究

Study on Unemployment Rate Under Non-accelerated type Inflation

作为判断通货膨胀率变化趋势的先行指标,NAIRU在西方宏观经济政策制定和讨论中经常被提及、关注,其基础是短期菲利普斯曲线。在中国经济转型时期,城乡劳动力市场结构有着不同于西方劳动力结构的特性。由此,失业率和通货膨胀率之间的联系和短期菲利普斯曲线暗含的逻辑存在一定的差异,NAIRU作为判断中国通货膨胀率趋势的先行指标具有一定的局限性。

As a leading indicator to judge the change trend of inflation rate, NAIRU has been paid much attention when macroeconomic policies are made in western countries and it＇s based on short-term Philips Curve. In economic transmission period in China, the structure of Chinese labor force market is different from that of labor force market of western countries, and the relationship between unemployment rate and inflation rate is inconsistent with the logic of short-term Philips curve, so that NAIRU is not suitable to be adopted as a leading indicator to judge the change trend of inflation rate in China.