FDI影响中国服务业发展的实证研究

Empirical Research on FDI's Impact on the Development of China's Service Industry

服务业是新一轮全球外商直接投资的热点,理论上,服务业FDI将通过资本效应、就业效应、技术效应、贸易效应和制度效应影响东道国服务业发展。而利用1987—2006年数据,对中国的实证研究发现:服务业FDI单向地成为中国服务业发展的格兰杰因,两者之间存在长期均衡的协整关系;基于引力模型思路的检验发现,就业效应、技术效应和资本效应是服务业FDI影响中国服务业发展依次显著的传导路径。最后文章从宏观和微观层面提出合理利用FDI促进我国服务业发展的对策。

Service industry is the popular spot of the new round global foreign direct investment. Theoretically, FDI in service industry can impact the development of the host nation＇ s service industry by capital effect, employment effect, technology effect, trade effect and system effect. But the empirical research on China＇ s case from 1987 to 2006 finds that FDI is the granger cause for service development and the contrary is not; There is a long-run equilibrium cointegration relation between them; Through the way of gravity model, we find employment effect, technology effect and capital effect are the progressive distinctive transmission paths through which FDI affects China＇ s service industry＇ s development. Finally, some advises were given for reasonable use of FDI to enhance the development of China＇ s service industry.