中国贸易顺差成因研究——基于跨时最优消费理论的实证分析

Research on the Causes of China's Trade Surplus:Empirical Analysis Based on Intertemporal Optimizing Model of Consumption

本文首先在跨时最优消费理论的基础上,建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型和相应的计量模型,然后运用Johansen协整分析法、Granger因果检验法及VEC模型对中国在1978—2006年间贸易顺差的成因进行实证研究。结果表明:长期而言,中国实际资本存量和实际资本使用成本与贸易顺差均具有显著的正相关关系而中国居民实际财富和政府实际消费支出与贸易顺差显著负相关;中国实际资本存量高速增长和居民实际财富缓慢爬升是贸易顺差快速增加的主要原因。短期内,实际资本存量与居民实际财富的变化对贸易收支的影响具有一定的滞后性,甚至会出现与长期关系相反的现象。根据上述分析结果,本文提出了相关的政策建议。

Based on the intertemporal optimizing model, using Johansen cointegrating technique, Granger causality test and VEC model, this paper investigates the causes of China＇s trade surplus from 1978 to 2006. Empirical test shows that in the long run, China＇ s real capital stock and real user cost of capital are related to trade surplus positively and significantly. The consumer＇ s real wealth and government＇ s real consumption expenditure in China are related to trade surplus negatively and significantly. Increasing quickly in the real capital stock and increasing slowly in the real wealth are the causes of China＇ s trade surplus. However, the short-run relationship between the real capital stock and the real trade surplus is contrary to the long-run relation, and the short-run relationship between the consumer＇s real wealth and the real trade surplus is also contrary to the long-run relationship.