中国新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线研究

Research on New Keynesian Phillips Curve in China

本文提出了包含需求拉动、成本推动、通胀预期和通胀惯性四种因素的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,该模型推广了Gordon(1996)的三角模型和Gaíland Gertler(1999)的混合模型等经典菲利普斯曲线模型,具有理论上的完整性。本文使用中国数据对所提出的模型进行了检验,其中采用了基于微观调查数据的通胀预期。经验研究结果表明,新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型的最小二乘估计比GMM估计更具有稳健性。在通胀的四个决定因素中,通胀预期对当前通胀的影响最显著,通胀惯性次之,需求拉动排第三,而成本推动的影响不显著。

This paper presents a four-factor model of New Keynesian Phillips Curve, including the demand pull inflation, cost push inflation, inflation expectation, and inflation persistence. The new model extends Gordon＇s （1996） triangle model and Gali and Gertler＇ s （2000） hybrid model, and it is theoretically complete. This paper tests the new model by using China＇ s data, in which the inflation expectation is based on the micro-survey data. The results show that the OLS estimates of the new model are more robust than GMM estimates. Among the four factors of inflation, the inflation expectation has the most significant effect on the inflation, followed by inflation persistence and the unit labor cost or the output gap, and the oil price shock has an insignificant effect.