冰川水文模型研究进展

Progress in study of glacier hydrological model

定量评估冰川变化对干旱区流域/区域水资源管理、海平面上升以及冰川自然灾害预防等十分重要。从冰川产流(消融)和汇流两个水文物理过程出发,介绍了国内外冰川水文模型的研究进展,对目前应用最广的两类消融模型——基于气象因子的统计模型和基于物理机制的能量平衡模型进行了分析和讨论;从冰川表面、内部以及下部汇流3个方面阐述了冰川汇流模型所取得的成果。表明冰川产流(消融)模型已相对较为成熟,而冰川汇流过程目前仍处于探索阶段。构建适合不同规模和类型冰川的、包含冰川运动信息的分布式冰川水文物理模型是今后的研究重点。

The evaluation of the effects of glacier meltwater to Arid Area / regional water resources management, sea-level rising and glaciers natural disaster prevention are very important in the wake of global warming. This paper reviews the processes in glacier hydrological model in term of runoff generation model and runoff concentration model, analyzes the runoff generation mode from two most widely ablation model （the meteorological factors statistical model and the energy balance model）, and enlarges on the runoff concentration model from three sub-models： the surface routing sub-model, the englacial hydrology submodel and the sub-glacial hydrology sub-model. It is shown that the ablation model has become mature relatively, whereas the runoff concentration model is still at the exploration stage. The last part of this paper suggests the further research on constructing the distributed glacier hydrological physical models which suit to different scale and styles of glaciers and contain glacier movement information.