新疆人口-耕地-粮食复合系统动态分析预测研究

Study on Population-Cultivated Land-Grain System Balance in Xinjiang

对1996-2006年10a间新疆人口-耕地-粮食复合系统进行的动态分析为基础,选用灰色系统理论建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对2010年新疆总人口及人均粮食消费量情况进行预测。结果表明:新疆人口-耕地-粮食复合系统基本平衡;预测至2010年,新疆总人口将达到2217.74万人,人均粮食消费量162.45kg/人,新疆的粮食总产量除了能够满足新疆各族人民粮食需求外,可调出余粮为国家粮食安全做出贡献。

Based on an analysis During Recent Ten Years situation of Population-Cultivated Land-Grain System of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region,this paper,by applying GM（1,1）model of the gray theory,makes a forecast for total Population and per capita grain consumption of Xinjiang province by 2010.The prediction shows that by 2010 population will reach 22.1774 million people and that grain consumption capacity per capita will rise to 162.45 kg,it shows that the Total Grain Yield in Xinjiang by 2010 not only meets the grain demand of Residents in Xinjiang but also to makes contributions to the Food Security of China.