气候变化对淮河防洪与排涝管理项目的影响及适应对策研究

Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Control and Land Drainage Management Project in the Huaihe River Basin and Adaptive Measures

以"淮河流域重点平原洼地治理工程外资项目"为对象,综合分析了流域内地理气候、经济社会、河流水系及防洪体系的相互关系与演变特征。在气候变化影响下,流域3种类型的洪水中,由持续一两个月的长历时降水形成的量大但不集中的洪水,对平原洼地农业发展及治理工程效益的影响最为显著。在此基础上,对气候变化可能造成的影响进行了半定量分析,并提出了增强排涝能力与提高自适应能力并举的应对方案。

The Huaihe River Basin Flood Management and Drainage Improvement Project was taken as the study object. The characteristics of the geography, climate, economy, society, river systems and flood control systems etc. within the Huaihe River basin have been comprehensively analyzed. It is realized that, among the three types of floods in the Huaihe River basin, the flood caused by consecutive rainfall for more than one or two months may have the most obvious negative effect on the agricultural development in the low-lying areas and on the benefits of the project under the impacts of climate change. A semi-quantitative analysis for possible impacts of climate change is presented, and some adaptive measures of both enhancing the drainage capacity and raising the adaptive ability are put forward.