对潜在气象风险源的公众支付意愿评估

Assessment of Willingness to Pay for Potential Meteorological Risk Resources

以高影响天气事件作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用12121气象电话拨打数据和气象信息,结合条件价值评估方法(CVM),评估社会公众对高影响天气事件发生时的支付意愿(WTP)。以西安市为例,分类分析2004—2007年、与公众生活关系密切的高温、热浪、"桑拿天"、小雨、中雨、大到暴雨、雷暴、雪、雾(霾)和连阴雨等10类高影响天气事件,评估其风险超越概率、公众风险关注和支付意愿。结果表明,当降水类、高温类、雷暴和雾(霾)等潜在气象风险源发生时,西安老百姓意愿支付所产生的社会效益年平均值分别约为4973.394万元/年、1174.854万元/年、311.269万元/年和471.637万元/年。结论有利于定量判断公共气象服务的社会影响力。

By using the information of high impact weather events and dialing numbers of weather service phone （named 12121 ）, the distribution of estimated meteorological attention degrees of general public was calculated. Further more, the social benefit values of public weather service through willingness to pay （WTP） are also estimated. Taking Xi＇ an city as an example, it chooses occurring clays of ten high impact weather events closely related to general public from 2004 to 2007,which are granted as potential meteorological risk resources, i.e. high temperature, heat wave, sultry weather, scattered precipitation, moderate shower, heavy rain, thunderstorm, snow, fog or haze and consecutively rainy day. According to demography information and average local phone charge, the total WTP values were calculated respectively. The results show that there were approximatdy 1174. 854 ten thousand Yuan/year on temperature weather events, about 4973. 394 ten thousand Yuan/year on precipitation events, roughly 311. 269 ten thousand Yuan/ year on thunderstorm and probably 471. 637 ten thousand Yuan/year on fog or haze weather. The result is helpful for quantitative judgments about societal influence of publicmeteorological services.