北京奥运期间冰雹灾害风险评估

Hail Risk Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster During Beijing Olympic Games

采用空间信息技术的评估方法对北京地区奥运期间的冰雹灾害进行风险评估,并从原理、方法及过程3个方面作了系统的论述。冰雹灾害风险评估基于空间评估模型,综合叠加了以地形为外界敏感性因素的敏感度因子、以出现概率为主的危险性评估结果及考虑下垫面的人口、经济、人文分布情况的脆弱性评估结果。评估结果所展现的北京地区奥运期间的冰雹灾害的风险情况表明:冰雹灾害风险除了与雹源分布有密切关系外,还与城市人口及社会、经济情况关联,其权重组合计算结果显示北部山区及北京市的中心地带为易受冰雹灾害影响的高风险或较高风险区域。

Because different meteorological disasters have different spatial forms, the linear and polynomial models are put forward to carry on the risk assessment of meteorological disaster. Taking hail disaster as example, the comprehensive discussion is conducted in these three aspects of principle, method and process of assessment. The spatial evaluation model of hail disaster superimposes sensibility factor of topography, risk occurrence probability and vulnerability which relates to the distribution of population, economy and humanity in land surface. The technology of the geographic information system is adopted to deal with assessment results in spatial visible way. Risk condition of various meteorological disasters during Olympic Games in Beijing area is embodied in evaluation results. Risk of hail disaster is closely related to distribution of hail source as well as population in urban and situation of society and economy. These also determine that central region in Beijing city is high risk area of hail disaster. Probability distribution of rainstorm, for example, in different intensity grade reflects essentially spatial possibility that corresponding disaster occurs.