基于对手不完全信息的订单在线智能协商模型

Intelligent order online negotiation model with incomplete information of opponent

针对订单在线协商延误率和失败率高的问题,基于Zeuthen协商策略提出多阶段多边协进化协商算法。引入新的协调者角色控制多边谈判,并利用贝叶斯原理,通过逐渐修正对手底价估算向量的概率分布和动态调整报价曲线获得最优协商让步幅度,结合同步淘汰机制有效避免了无效协商。实验表明该模型能够充分利用对手信息实时更新智能体协商信念,进而明显地改进了协商行为的效用。

For the problem of high delay rate and high failure rate of order online negotiation, based on Zeuthen Strategy, a novel multistage multilateral co-evolution algorithm was proposed. The algorithm applied a new role of agent called coordinator （CO） to effectively control the muhilateral negotiation process, and caught the optimal extent of concession with Bayesian Learning by gradually amending the probability distribution of opponent＇s reserve-price valuation-vector and dynamically adjusting ones own business bid-curve. Combining the synchronous kicking-out mechanism, invalid consultation was avoided. The experimental results show the proposed method sufficiently captures the opponent＇s information to help agents duly update their belief, and the utility of negotiation behavior is obviously improved.