摘要
建立了艾滋病传播过程中感染者人数占总人口比例所满足的随机模型,分析了环境因素对艾滋病传播过程的影响,利用数值解方法对模型进行分析,结合我国数十年间艾滋病病毒感染者实际数据进行仿真,验证模型的有效性;并对未来我国艾滋病病毒感染者人数占总人口比例进行预测,通过对其中的传染率控制指标β进行分析,得出这一指标的波动对艾滋病流行趋势的影响。通过分析其均值与方差,提出对β的调整策略以达到一定的控制目标,从而为艾滋病的预防和控制提供一定程度上的决策支持。
In this paper, a stochastic model is presented to forecast the proportion of the population infected with HIV against the total population in the transmission course of AIDS and the environmental effect on AIDS transmission is also analyzed. Based on the numerical method, the model is simulated with the actual data of the number of people infected with HIV within almost ten years in China. Then the model is verified. The proportion of the population infected with HIV against the total population is predicted in the future. Especially, the control index of the transmission rate β is studied to obtain its effect on the epidemic trend of AIDS when it fluctuates. And, based on the analysis of the mean value and variance of the proportion, a strategy to adjust β is presented to approach a certain control objective. As a result, to a certain degree, a decision is made for AIDS prevention and control.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
2008年第12期308-311,共4页
Computer Simulation
基金
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-04-415)
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20060255006)
关键词
艾滋病
随机模型
传染率
预防
控制
AIDS
Stochastic model
Transmission rate
Prevention
Control
