内江市沱江流域经济-环境系统持续发展的数值模拟

Numerical Simulation on Sustainable Development of EconomicEnvironment System in Neijiang Reach of Tuojiang River Basin

利用区域经济－环境系统持续发展规划模型［１］，对内江市沱江流域经济－环境系统可持续发展进行了模拟实验。结果指出：１９９５～２０１０年研究区域单位工业产值的排污量应以１３％的年均递减率递减，合理的工业发展速度是年均递增１４％，工业发展最大速度不宜超过１６．４％。

ased on the models of sustainable development planning of regional economicenvironment system,simulated experiment on sustainable development of economicenvironment in Neijiang Reach of Tuojiang River basin was conducted.The result showed that,from 1995 to 2010,the quantity of pollutants discharge of unit industrial production value should be to decrease at an average of 13% peryear,the rational rate of industrial development should be to increase at an average of 14% peryear,the top speed of industrial development should never be over 16.4%.