基于巢式Logit模型的机场吞吐量预测方法

Nested Logit Model Based Airports Passenger Throughput Forecasting

在中小机场吞吐量预测方法中首次引入了巢式Logit模型(NL)。并以无锡机场旅客吞吐量为实例,将预测结果与其他预测方法的结果进行比较,得出了对中小机场进行预测时,使用巢式Logit模型由于综合考虑了机场所在地经济社会的发展现状,机场的服务能力以及周边机场的竞争影响因素,所以预测结果的相对误差较小,并可以从计算过程中得到机场可能的客流量组成和地区客流量走向。

Nested Logit Model was introduced to forecast the passenger throughput of small and medium-sized airports for the first time. Took Wuxi airport for example, through comparing the results with other methods, the results show that for the airport in the early stage of development, the prediction error of Logit Model is small and the possible component and the tendency of passenger flow can be gained, as considering the economic and social de^elopment status of the area, the ability of airport services, and the competition of the peripheral airport.