3种森林火险气象指数在黑龙江省北部林区应用效果的对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Applied Effect for Three Kinds of Forest Fire Danger Weather Indexes in the North Forest Regions of Heilongjiang Province

利用黑龙江省北部大兴安岭林区和小兴安岭伊春林区11个气象站1961—2005年逐日气象资料、森林火灾次数资料和五营林业气象试验站1991—2005年森林可燃物含水率观测资料,采用统计回归法,建立森林细小可燃物含水率与气象要素关系模型。研究表明,模型模拟效果较好,模型模拟值可应用于森林火险气象指数模型中。对IN、IMN和INMC3种森林火险气象指数在黑龙江省北部林区实际使用效果的对比分析表明:IMN指数总体应用效果最好,IN指数次之,INMC指数较好,3种指数可在黑龙江省林区大范围推广使用;在实际应用中,考虑森林可燃物含水率这一因素,可提高INMC指数的应用效果。划分了3种森林火险气象指数在黑龙江省北部林区应用中相应的森林火险等级指标。

A model to express the relationship between fine fuel moisture content and meteorological factors was built by the statistical regress method in accordance with daily meteorological data during 1961 and 2005 from 11 meteorological stations of the north forest region （Daxing＇ anling Forest Region and Xiaoxing＇ anling Yichun Forest Region） of Heilongjiang Province, forest fire danger data from the Forestry Fireproofing Headquarters of Daxing＇ anling Forest Region and Xiaoxing＇ anling Yichun Forest Region, and forest fuel moisture data during 1991 and 2005 from Wuying Forestry Meteorological Station in Heilongjiang Province. Result showed that the simulated effect of the model was better, and the simulation values of the model could be applied to the models of forest fire danger Weather indexes. The applied effects of three kinds of forest fire danger weather indexes showed that IMN index was the best, and then followed by IN index and INMC index in order. These three kinds of indexes could be popularized and applied in the forest regions of Heilongjiang Province. When INMC index is applied in practice, the factor of forest fuel moisture should be taken into account in order to improve the applied effect. The forest fire danger grades calculated by these indexes were classified in the north forest region of Heitongjiang Province.