摘要
采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,运用灰色Verhulst评价模型对我国今后铁矿资源的需求量进行了分析预测。结果表明,该模型评价的结果平均相对误差为0.064,置信度达93.6%,且从2007到2022年15年间预测的铁矿资源年平均增长率为4%,相对于我国年平均7%的经济增长率来说这一评价结果可信度较高,具有一定的实用价值。
The demand of iron ore resources in the future in our country is analyzed and forecasted by using qualitative and quantitative analysis method with gray Verhulst model. Result indicates that the average relative error for the result obtained by this model is 0. 064 （with 93.6% confidence）. The average growth rate of iron ore from the year of 2007 to 2022 is forecasted to 4%. Compared with 7% for average annual economic growth rate, this evaluation with a higher confidence has some practical value.
出处
《矿冶工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第6期5-7,共3页
Mining and Metallurgical Engineering
关键词
铁矿资源
灰色模型
安全评价
iron ore resources
grey model
safety evalution
