输气管道风险值的计算方法研究

Research on Calculating Methods of Quantitative Risk Associated with Gas Transmission Pipeline

通过对输气管道风险值计算方法的研究,引入了"死亡长度"的概念,给出了个体风险的计算公式,推导了导致目标位置处的个体出现不同死亡概率所对应管道长度的计算公式,分析了输气管道风险评价标准的适用性。实例研究表明,不同失效模式对应的"死亡长度"存在明显不同,在管道发生全截面破裂时达到最大。随着离输配起点距离的增加,管道穿孔和破裂失效时对应的"死亡长度"先降低较快,然后逐渐趋于平缓;管路沿线的个体风险分布也呈现出相同的变化趋势。

Through research on calculation methods of quantitative risk,the authors introduce the concept of fatal length and give the expression of individual risk,the expressions of calculating pipeline length within different death probabilities at a specified location from a pipeline are deduced.And the criteria applicable to gas pipeline risk evaluation are analyzed as well.Case analysis shows that the fatal lengths at three failure modes are evidently different and become most when the pipe is completely broken.Besides,with the increase of the distance from gas supply station,the fatal length decreases sharply first,and then goes to a balance state.The distribution of individual risk along the pipeline also remains the same state.