长江、黄河流域暴雨预报着眼点

THE CLUES FOR PREDICTION OF TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER YANGTZE RIVER AND YELLOW RIVER VALLEYS

应用天气学和动力学方法诊断研究大尺度环境场对暴雨过程中次天气尺度系统发生发展的影响及机理，并用Ｔ４２Ｌ１２全球谱模式及ＭＭ４中尺度模式，试验长江流域和黄河流域暴雨过程中大尺度环流系统对次天气尺度系统发生的影响，从不同尺度相互作用出发对长江中下游和黄河中下游的暴雨提出预报着眼点，供有关部门在业务预报中参考．

The effects of synoptic scale circumstances on the occurrence and growth of the mesoscale systems in the process of torrential rain are studied by using the synoptic and dynamic analyses methods and using a global spectral model T42L12 and a mesoscale model MM4 experiments, and from which several forecast clues of torrential rain over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yellow River are presented. It is helpful to the operational forecast for correlative meteorological services.