中国贸易条件的变动趋势测算及影响因素分析

Calculation of the Changing Trend of Chinese Trade Terms and an Analysis of its Influencing Factors

利用回归方程对1981～2007年中国贸易条件变动趋势进行测算,研究发现:中国贸易条件以每年4.6%的速度下降,其中工业制成品贸易条件下降是主要动因。在此基础上,对于贸易条件的影响因素进行理论分析和实证检验:长期来看,汇率变化对于贸易条件无显著影响,出口商品结构、FDI和关税水平对贸易条件都有显著影响。

This paper uses regress equations to calculate the changing tend of trade terms, and finds that Chinese trade terms decline at the rate of 4.6%, and the reduction of trade terms from the manufactured goods forms the main cause. After the theoretical analysis and empirical research on the influencing factors for the change of trade terms, it indicates that in the long run, exchange rate has no obvious effect on trade terms while the structure of exported goods, FDI and tariff have an obvious influence on them.