经济增长与经济波动的关系——基于亚洲“四小虎”面板数据的实证研究

The Relationship between Economic Growth and Variability:an Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data of Four Asian Tigers

文章突破传统宏观经济学把经济增长与经济波动分开研究的两分法,利用面板数据的分析框架实证研究了亚洲"四小虎"经济增长与经济波动的关系。实证的结论支持了经济增长与经济波动的负相关关系,否定了Black假说。同时以亚洲金融危机为临界点,发现经济增长与经济波动的负相关关系在各个区间上具有稳健性,这是各国采取违背本国比较优势的赶超战略的后果。因此各国应从本国具有比较优势的产业出发,增加经济结构的内在稳定性,防止经济波动。

To empirically analyze the relationship between Four Asian Tigers＇ economic growth and variability, this paper presents an analytical framework of panel data against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the variability. The empirical result finds out that the relationship is significantly negative, which is contrary to Black hypothesis, and is robust when we re-examine the relationship in a different period at the critical point of Asian financial crisis. It assumes that it is the consequence of adopting a ＂forging ahead＂ development strategy inconsistent with the comparative advantage of the economy. Our policy implication is to bring out each country＇ comparative advantage into full play and strengthen the inner stability of economic structure, which is important to keep economic growth stable.