1991年夏季持续性异常环流的共轭敏感性分析

Adjoint Sensitivity Analyses on the Persistent Anomalous Circulation during the Summer of 1991

在共轭敏感性分析的基础上发展了最敏感扰动的概念。用共轭模式对江淮流域大水１９９１年东亚夏季环流的持续异常特征，包括乌拉尔阻塞高压、鄂霍次克海偶极子型阻塞以及副热带高压的变动过程进行了分析，分别得到了对这些过程影响最大的初始扰动。结果从新的角度揭示了这些系统最重要的影响因子，也显示了共轭敏感性分析方法在大气环流物理过程诊断中的有效性和应用前景。

The concept of optimal sensitivity perturbation is developed basing on analyses to adjoint sensitivity The persistent anomalous features of the East Asian summer circulation in 1991, including the Ural blocking, the East Asian dipole blocking and the variation of the subtropical high pressure, which have caused severe floods in the Yangtqe River and Huaihe River valleys are analyzed with the adjoint model Every initial perturbations with the strongest influence upon the above each anomaly, respectively, are obtained The results revealed the most important factors in these systems form a new aspect and showed the efficiency and great potential of further applications of the method of the adjoint sensitivity analysis in the diagnoses of the physical processes of atmospheric general circulation