摘要
产量模型是渔业管理中预测最大持续产量（ＭＳＹ）的经典方法。ＭＳＹ仍然是渔业管理的重要目标之一。文章应用模拟数据比较了最常用的产量模型。蒙特卡罗研究表明ＷａｌｔｅｒｓａｎｄＨｉｌｂｏｒｎ的动态模型表现最好。这些方法被应用在小鳞鱼箴（ＨｅｍｉｒｈａｍｐｈｕｓｓａｊｏｒｉＴｅｍｍｉｎｃｋａｎｄＳｃｈｌｅｇｅｌ）种群。Ｗａｌ－ｔｅｒｓａｎｄＨｉｌｂｏｒｎ方法的Ｂｏｏｔｓｔｒａｐ结果是２２５０ｔ（吨）的ＭＳＹ和８０６艘船的最佳捕捞努力量。与目前２０００艘船的努力量水平比较，渔业处于过度捕捞状态。
Production models are classical methods to predict the MSY (maximum sustainable yield) for fisheries management, which is still one of the major fisheries management goals. The paper compares the most popularly used production models using simulated data. Monte Carlo simulation analysis showed that the dynamic model of Walters and Hiborn method worked consistently well. The methods were applied to the Japanese half beak fish (Hemirhamphus sajori Temminck and Schlegel) data. Bootstrap estimations of the Walters and Hilborn method produced an MSY of about 2250 tons and an optimum fishing effort of 806 boats. In comparison with the current effort level of about 2000 boats, the fishery is overfished, therefore a major reduction of fishing effort is needed.
关键词
产量模型
小鳞Zhen
渔业管理
鱼类
种群
production models
Hemirhamphus sajori (Temminck and Schlegel)
simulation
fisheries management
