中国旅游业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Chinese Tourism Development and Economic Growth

本文实证研究确定了旅游业(国内旅游与国际旅游)发展与中国经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,并构建了一个用于测度它们之间量化关系的协整模型。Granger因果检验发现经济增长与国内旅游之间存在双向因果关系,经济增长到国际旅游存在单项因果关系。运用VAR模型预测2006年和2007年国内旅游收入,说明该模型具有一定的预测效果。

This empirical analysis establishes a long-term and stable co-integrating relationship by means of co-integration regression model between the development of tourism （ including international tourism and domestic tourism ） and economic growth in China. In the medium term and long term, the elasticity of economic growth to domestic tourism is 0.1 l while the elasticity of international tourism to domestic tourism is 1.08. Granger test also confirms that there is a bidirectional cause-effect relationship between economic growth and domestic tourism, as well as a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and international tourism. VAR predicts that income of domestic tourism in China will be RMB 620, 250 million in 2006, actually 623,000 million in 2006, and the forecasted value for 2007 is 770,450, actual value being 777,100 million. The effectiveness of the forecast model is showed.