宁波对外贸易与经济增长关系的协整分析

A Co-integration Analysis on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Ningbo

利用1987～2006年的经济数据,在单位根检验和协整分析的基础上进行了格兰杰因果检验,建立了误差修正模型,就宁波对外贸易与经济增长关系进行了实证研究.结果表明:宁波进出口与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,两者之间是单向的格兰杰因果关系,出口对经济增长的作用大于进口,应该继续坚持出口导向型经济发展战略,同时重视进口的作用。

In this paper, on the basis of the unit root test and Co-integration analysis Granger causality test is carried out using the time series data taken between 1987 and 2006, and the error correct model is thus constructed. Using the introduced means, the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Ningbo is investigated and verified. The study results show that there exists a long-term steady-balanced relationship between local export and economic growth, and the relation acts in one-way manner as Granger causality describes. It is also found that export plays greater role than import, thus export-oriented strategy should be adhered to for economic development without losing sight on the role of import.