黄金价格影响因素的实证分析

Positive Analysis of Influence Factors to Gold Price

黄金作为一种特殊的贵金属,具有货币和商品的双重功能。近30年来,黄金价格经历了令人瞠目的变化,黄金的保值增值功能再次得到体现,所以研究黄金价格变化的决定性因素变得非常重要。黄金价格的变化受CPI指数、石油价格、美元指数、长期债券、CRB指数、DOW指数等因素的影响较大。通过对各因素与黄金价格的关系进行分析,建立黄金价格与各个影响因素的数量模型,将各因素对黄金价格的影响程度进行量化分析,为研究黄金价格的变化提供了依据。

Gold, a special expensive metal, has two functions ： money and product. Especially in recent 30 years, gold price has been bearing so stunning changes. Gold price once appeared $1000 per ounces in 2008. It reflects the function of maintaining value and adding value. So it＇ s important to analyze the deceiving factors of gold price＇ s change. After long analysis and study, people believe that change of gold price is influenced by CPI index, oil price, USA index, long - term bends, CRB index, DOW index. After analysis of the relations of various factors and gold price, the mode of gold price is made and various factors＇ influence degree to gold is analyzed, which may supply gist for gold price＇s chance.