我国财政支农与金融支农对农民收入的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

On the Influence of Fiscal and Financial Support on Farmers' Income in China—Based on the Unrestricted VAR Model

文章采用了1980～2006年的年度数据,通过建立相应的VAR模型,进行了财政支农和金融支农对农民收入影响的实证分析。通过模型设定、格兰杰检验、脉冲响应函数分析和预测方差分解,发现农产品收购价格是影响农民收入的主要因素,财政支农和金融支农均对农民收入会产生影响。就效果而言,金融支农的效果要明显优于财政支农,财政支农在促进农民收入增加的过程中存在"渗漏"效应。因此,提高农产品收购价格和加大金融支农的力度是提高农民收入更为有效的途径。

Through constructing a VAR model, this paper takes the yearly data from 1980 to 2006 to study the influence of fiscal and financial support on the income of farmers. We performed a Granger Causality Test, Impulse Responses Functions, and Variance Decomposition Analysis. Based on the model, the price of the farm and sideline products purchasing is the main factor to influence the income of farmers. Meanwhile, both fiscal support and financial support will have influence on the income of farmers. There is ＂leaking＂ effect in the fiscal support, and financial support is more effective than fiscal support. So to raise the price of the farm and sideline products purchasing and to increase the financial support spending are both effective to increase the income of farmers.