上海市17年甲型病毒性肝炎发病趋势分析

Trend analysis on viral hepatitis A of the past 17 years in Shanghai

[目的]分析上海市17年甲型病毒性肝炎流行情况和发病趋势,为制定防治对策提供依据。[方法]对1990—2006年上海市人口及疫情报告资料进行统计分析,运用灰色模型分析甲型病毒性肝炎发病趋势。[结果]1990—2006年上海市甲型肝炎发病占急性病毒性肝炎总报告发病数的9.91%,平均发病率为8.82/10万。甲型肝炎总体发病率呈现下降趋势。[结论]根据17年甲型肝炎发病数据建立的灰色模型可以较好地预测近几年发病趋势。

[ Objective] To study the incidence and time trend of hepatitis A Shanghai in order to supply a base in establishing preventive policies for this disease during the past 17 years in [ Methods ] The population and epidemic surveillance data of Shanghai city from year 1990 - 2006was used together with the gray - model to analyze trend of hepatiiis A. [ Results] Reported cases of hepatitis A accounted for 9.91% among acute hepatitis in Shanghai during year 1990 -2006. Average incidence of hepatitis A was 8.82/100000. Its trend in Shanghai was declining. [ Conclusion] The gray - model based on data of hepatitis A during the past 17 years can forecast the trend for the latter few years.