中国流动性过多与外汇储备累积

Excess liquidity and foreign reserve accumulation

本文以流动性的界定以及流动性过多原因分析为起点,试图探究并论证我国流动性过多与外汇储备过度累计两者之间的关系及其作用机制。通过2000～2007年时间序列数据的经验研究表明,中国流动性过多与外汇储备累积之间存在双向因果关系。因此,要解决流动性过多问题,短期而言要缓解外汇储备过度累积,长期而言,要在外汇储备管理体制、人民币汇率制度、外汇市场交易体系等方面进行体制改革,从根本上切断外汇储备与货币供应之间的被动联系。

Based on the definition of liquidity and the reason of excess liquidity, the paper discusses the relationship between excess liquidity and foreign reserve accumulation and hence the reasonable mechanism of the impaction. The empirical test based on a time series sample from 2000 ~ 2007 shows that, there is a positive cross-relationship between liquidity surplus and foreign reserve balance. Which in the short run means that the way to solve the problem of excess liquidity is also the approach to diminish the foreign reserve over accumulation, and vice versa. In the long term, reform of the current foreign reserve management system, RMB exchange rate mechanism, and the foreign exchange trading system should be adopted, so as to cut off the passive relationship between foreign reserve balance and monetary supply.