宏观经济因素与经常项目失衡的调整:跨国经验及其对中国的启示

The Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Current Account Adjustments:International Experience and the Implications for China

本文利用1980年至2005年全球范围内106个国家或地区的相关经济数据,确定了经常项目失衡调整的事后标准,进而识别出经常项目失衡的不同调整期间。借助于调整期间的界定,本文针对宏观经济因素与经常项目失衡的调整问题进行了实证研究。基于跨国数据的实证研究结果表明了一些宏观经济变量对经常项目失衡的调整具有显著的影响作用,例如固定资本形成、贸易条件变化以及官方储备等。本文合理借鉴了经常项目失衡调整的跨国经验,并且结合中国经济实际情况针对中国经常项目的盈余调整给出了相关政策建议。

This paper explores the relationship between the macroeconomic fundamentals and current account adjustments in 106 industrial and emerging market economies over the long span of from 1980 to 2005. The new four criteria for the current account adjustments are given to identify different adjustment episodes. Based on the adjustment episodes, some c variables are found to affect the current account adjustment by use of the econometric methods, such as the ratio of the fixed capital formation to GDP, in terms of trade and official reserves. Enlightened by the international experience on the current account adjustment, this paper gives some policy advices for the surplus adjustment of China＇s current account.