负荷预测的变权重灰色模型及其应用

Variable Weight Gray Model of Load Prediction and Its Application

针对传统灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在电力负荷预测中存在的局限性,提出了电力系统中期负荷预测的变权重灰色模型。以河北承德为例进行负荷预测,并与指数平滑法、动平均法、二项式预测模型和GM(1,1)模型四种方法的预测结果及实际用电量进行分析比较。结果表明,该模型预测精度较高、简捷、合理、实用,可作为中期电力负荷预测的工具之一。

Due to the limitation existing in the traditional gray model GM （1, 1）, an improved grey model based on variable weight, which can be used for mid-term load forecasting, has been established. The electric load forecasting of Chengde, Hebei province has been taken as an example. The result produced by the Variable Weight Gray Model GM （1, 1） was compared with others given by the methods of Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average , Binomial Model and Gray Model GM （1, 1） and practical consumption. The comparison shows that this model has high forecasting accuracy and is simple, rational and practical. With all these characteristics, this model can be trusted as one of the tools for midterm electronic load forecasting.