产业结构变化对经济增长影响的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of the Transformation of Industrial Structure on Economic Growth

产业结构的调整会推动或制约经济的发展。通过对我国各产业对经济增长贡献的实证分析,得出当前我国各个产业对GDP增长的贡献以及这一贡献在一定时期内的变化情况;通过对产业结构对经济增长的影响进行实证分析,得出我国自改革开放以来产业结构调整和经济增长率的相关关系。并对两个实证分析结果进行综合分析,结果表明,我国当前对GDP增长率贡献最大的是第二产业,其次是第三产业;改革开放以来的产业结构调整主要集中在第一产业比重的减少和第三产业比重的增加,这一产业结构调整有利于经济发展。

The transformation of industrial structure may force or restrict the economic development. This paper conducts an empirical study on the contribution of each industry to economic growth in our couatry and to the growth of GDP at present, and its changes in a given period. Then the paper conducts another empirical analysis of the effects of industrial structure on the economic growth, and educes the relationship between the adjustment of industrial structure and economic growth rate since the reform and opening - up. It concludes that the secondary industry has the biggest contribution to GDP growth rate, then the tertiary industry. Since the reform and opening - up, the adjustment of industrial structure focuses on the decrease of the primary industry and the increase of the tertiary industry; this transformation is propitious to the development of economy.