马尔可夫链在预测太原市降水量中的应用

Application of the Markov Chain in the Forecasting of Precipitation in Taiyuan

根据1978年-2007年的降水资料,应用马尔可夫链的预测模型对太原市的降水量情况进行预测和分析,并指出此模型可靠性较差。然后利用加权马尔可夫链模型进行改进,通过加权的方法反映出各年的相互依存关系,并获得了较为满意的结果。

According to 1978-2007 year precipitation materials, this article carries on the forecast and the analysis of Taiyuan＇s precipitation situation using the Markov chain forecast model. However, the reliability is bad. By use of the weighted Markov chain model, the paper makes the improvement. The more satisfactory results are obtained.