基于嵌套Logit模型的旅游者目的地选择影响因素分析

Analysis of Influential Factors of Destination Choice Based on NMNL Model

借鉴分类策略和选择域理论,将NMNL(Nested Multinomial Logit)模型用来分析情感映象和约束因素在目的地选择过程中的作用。对影响因素进行问卷调查后,采用统计软件stata 10.0进行分析。其中,约束因素包括对目的地的了解程度、没人同行、他人评价、人太多、交通不便、距离太远、费用太高,情感映象则用"愉快的—不愉快的"、"放松的—烦恼的"、"唤起的—沉睡的"、"兴奋的—沮丧的"这四维尺度来评价,得出结论:旅游者对某一目的地的情感映象越好,并且该目的地被感知的约束因素越少,该目的地被选择的机率也就越大。

Trough the introduction of choice set concept and NMNL（ Nested Muhinomial Logit） model, the paper explained tourists＇ decision - making process by investing the roles of categorization, affective images and constraints. The data gained via the survey and was analyzed by statistical software stata 10.0. In the questionnaire, constraints include how well tourists knowing about a destination, nobody to go with, the estimation of somebody, too crowed, inconvenient transportation, too far, and high expense. And affective images were estimated by four - dimensional scale, such as pleasant - unpleasant, relaxing - distressing, arousing - sleepy, exciting - gloomy. The paper has reached a conclusion： the better affective images about a destination, and the less perceived constraints, the more probability of the destination to be chosen.