我国财政政策非线性效应的理论探讨与检验

The Theoretic and Positive Study of Non-linear Effect of Fiscal Policy in China

财政政策的非线性效应,是指财政政策不仅具有凯恩斯效应,还具有非凯恩斯效应。实证研究表明中国的财政政策存在显著的非线性效应:在短缺经济结束之前的1979—1982年、1987—1990年和1994—1995年,财政政策具有非凯恩斯效应;1996—2006年,经济开始受到有效需求不足的困扰,财政政策具有显著的凯恩斯效应;财政初始条件和财政调整幅度等主体预期因素不是财政政策非线性效应产生的必然原因。

Fiscal policy＇s non-linear effect refers to the fact that fiscal policy not only has Keynesian effect, but also has non-Keynesian effect. The paper uses the Regime Switching Model to examine fiscal policy＇s non-linear effect. Result shows that effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in China are non- linear. In the regimes, such as 1978 - 1982, 1987 - 1990 and 1994 - 1995, the effect of fiscal policy is non -Keynesian;while in the regime 1996 -2006, the effect of fiscal policy is Keynesian, when our economy is suffering from inadequate effective demand. Finally, the paper shows that initial fiscal conditions and magnitude of fiscal consolidations are not necessarily related to non-linear effects of fiscal policy.