中国要素贸易条件变动考证:1985—2004

Empirical Study of Factoral Terms of Trade in China:1985-2004

仅仅根据近年来商品贸易条件指数下降而得出中国贸易条件恶化的结论,是缺乏有效根据的,甚至可能会产生有害的影响。因为贸易条件究竟是在改善还是在恶化,直接关系到如何评价近年中国的贸易发展模式以及未来贸易发展战略的选择。从实证角度对中国要素贸易条件的变动趋势进行分析,可以为关于中国贸易条件的讨论提供一种新的视角。

It is not sufficient to draw conclusion that China＇s terms of trade is deteriorated only according to the Net Barter Terms of Trade （ NBTY）. The changing of terms of trade is important to appraise our trade developing mode and to choose the future stratagem. This paper focuses on the computing and analyzing the changing trend of FTT and LFTT in the years since Chinese economy reform started. It will offer a kind of new angle to discuss our terms of trade.