中国上市公司股利变动与经营业绩相关性分析

Correlation Analysis of Dividend Changes and Earning Performance in Chinese Listed Companies

用2000—2004年间现金股利变动的中国上市公司为样本,考察公司股利变动与经营业绩之间的关系,实证结果表明:增加股利和首次发放股利的公司在公告前两年收益增加,在公告后两年收益减小;而减小和停发股利的公司情况正好相反。中国上市公司的股利政策主要是依据过去和当前的经营业绩而不是未来预期的经营业绩,实证结果与股利信号假设预测不一致。进一步检验发现,尽管短期内市场对股利增加公告有正面反应,对股利减小有负面反应,但市场对股利公告的长期反应与短期反应截然相反。

This paper examines the relationship between dividend adjustments and operating performance by using a sample of Chinese listed companies which had changed cash dividends over 2000 - 2004. The test shows that companies which increase and declare dividends for the ftrst time experience earnings growth in the preceding two years but earnings declines in the subsequent two years. Companies that decrease and omit dividends are just the opposite. The results mean that the dividend policy of a firm depends on past and current earnings performance but not on future earnings, which is against the dividend - signaling hypothesis. Testing market reacts positively to announcements of increasing dividend and reacts negatively to announcements of decreasing dividend in the short run, but the market reaction is opposite in the long run.