溪洛渡水电站截流戗堤合龙时上游水位的预测

Prediction of Upstream Water Level at Xiluodu Hydropower Station Closing Dike Closure

记录与陈述了一个截流实例:在多条导流洞进口围堰爆破残堆形态未知的情况下,以一个"模糊堰"来替代,借助于水情预报和水文测验成果预测计算截流戗堤合龙时的上游水位。过程是在前阶段戗堤龙口基础上,随继续进占开始预测,第5小时预报,事后证明预报可靠。本文意在推荐一种解题思路,即如果无法预知必要的计算参数,那么就干脆把它"模糊"掉,用包含它的已知条件来求解。

Taking Xiluodu Hydropower Station river cutoff as an example, this pape elaborates under the condition that shapes of the residual parts of the many diversion tunnels inlet cofferdams after their removal blasting are unknown, these residual parts of the cofferdams are regarded as＂fuzzy weirs＂, by use of the hydrologic forecast and measurement data, the upstream water level at the time of the closing dike closure is estimated.