山西省经济增长与煤炭生产量、消费量的相关性分析

Empirical Study on Economic Growth and Production and Consumption of Coal in Shanxi

利用1978—2004年的相关数据,对山西煤炭年产量、年消费量与山西经济增长进行相关性分析,认为山西省的煤炭生产量与GDP增长不具有长期均衡关系,而山西的煤炭消费量与GDP增长有着很好的同步关系,煤炭消费量的变化最终影响了山西的经济增长。该结论解释了山西煤炭的"资源诅咒"现象。山西资源经济要健康地可持续发展,一种符合可持续发展理念的现实选择即是在科学的煤炭价格机制下大力发展循环经济。

This paper analyzes the correlation between the consumption and production of coal and growth using the relevant data from 1978 to 2004 in Shanxi province.It points out that:there doesn't exist the equilibrium relationship between the production of coal and the economic growth in Shanxi in the long-term;however,the obvious correlation between the consumption of coal and the economic growth in Shanxi exists.Finally,it puts forward that it is a realistic choice to develop the resource economy healthily and continuously in Shanxi that constructing the scientific coal price forming mechanism and developing the cycle economy.