地表沉陷的概率积分法预计参数的回归分析

Regression Analysis of Estimate Parameters of Ground Surface Subsidence by Probability Integral Method

概率积分法是我国常用的地表移动变形预计方法之一,用该法进行预计时涉及4个基本参数的确定,目前参数的确定方法主要依据经验进行计算或者参照与待预计矿山类似条件的已有矿山数据进行确定,但这种确定方法存在误差较大,导致预计结果误差较大。文中以100个实测典型工作面的概率积分参数作为样本,借助MATLAB的曲线拟合工具Curve Fitting Tool对概率积分法的预计参数进行了回归分析,确定了最大下沉值、影响半径、最大水平移动值和开采影响传播角这4个参数与矿山地质采矿因素之间的函数关系,并经过与实测数据进行对比分析,验证了函数模型的合理性,可用于概率积分法的地表移动变形预计,并减小了误差。

Probability integral method is one of the estimation methods in our country to calculate ground surface displacement deformation. Four basic parameters are concerned when this method is used. The parameter determining method that is currently used is to calculate by experience or the parameters are determined by the given data of mine that is similar to estimated mine. However there are big errors when this method is used, leading to big errors of estimation results. For this problem, taking for examples the 100 probability integral parameters of typical working face of actual measurement, regression analysis of estimate parameters by probability integral method is conducted with the aid of Curve Fitting Tool of MATLAB. The functional relation between the four parameters （ maximum subsidence value, radius of influence, maximum horizontal movement and mining propagation angle ） and mine geology mining parameters is determined. The rationality parameters and actual measurement data. prediction of ground surface by the probab of function model is verified by comparison between estimate The function model can be used for displacement deformation ility integral method and can reduce errors.