货币政策的有效性传导及其对股票价格的影响

The Efficient Conduct of Montary Policy and the Effect of Monetary Liquidity on Asset Price

我国近年来存在货币流动性和股票价格同时高企的现象。协整检验和格兰杰因果检验显示,在样本期内,货币流动性增加、2005年的股权分置改革与我国股票价格指数之间存在显著的因果关系。多渠道缓解我国内外经济失衡、长短期货币政策搭配、推进多层次资本市场建设、强化监管者对投资者的教育职责以及支持和培育机构投资者应成为我国现阶段宏观调控的重点。

It has happened that, in recent years, both monetary liquidity and share prices rise sharply. Cointegration tests and Granger causality tests reveal that there are cointegration and cause-and-result relationship between the increase of monetary liquidity and share price in the sample years, so do non-tradable share issue reform initiated in 2005 and share price. Thus, mitigating the internal and external economic imbalance by all means, combining longterm and short-term monetary policy, promoting multi-level capital market construction, intensifying the education responsibility for the investors borne by the supervisors and supporting and cultivating institutional investors are supposed to be the key to macro-control policy in China currently.