中国城乡富余劳动力的供给边界与规模测度

The Supply Confine of the Surplus Labors in Rural and Urban Areas and Its Scale Evaluation

利用数据包络分析法(DEA)对1978～2007年间的中国城乡富余劳动力进行估算,并建立富余劳动力显性化为流动劳动力的劳动力转移的两阶段模型和Logistic模型。结果表明,中国城乡富余劳动力规模远小于此前理论上的估计,其最高年份也没有超过1亿;以非农业劳动力计算的中国城乡富余劳动力转移基本接近完成。中国的就业压力并非过亿的富余劳动力如何转移的问题,而是如何让进城农民市民化的问题。

Multiple regional population estimation approach indicate that hundreds millions of super-abound labors does not exist in China from the beginning to the end as previous studies says. The super-abound labors released gradually with economic system reform and technical progressives. In the progress of demographic transformation （DT）, we watched the waves and troughs of floating work force and conformed that the concealed unemployment has revealed out in every year. At the base of population estimation, we use data envelopment approach （DEA method） to estimate the super-abound labors of year 1978-2007. We also provided out the model of DT and give some policy suggestions at end.