中国农业机械总动力预测分析——基于ARIMA模型

Predict and Analysis of Agricultural Machinery Total Power in China——Based on ARIMA Model

运用我国1978-2005年的统计资料,建立了中国农业机械总动力的ARIMA模型,并进行了预测分析。结果表明:ARIMA模型不但适合于中国农业机械总动力的非平稳时间序列特点,且预测效果比较理想;ARIMA(2,2,2)模型预测1982-2005年数值与实际数值之间的平均相对误差仅为1.009%,可用于中国农业机械总动力的预测与分析。

This paper applies our country＇s statistical data from 1978 to 2005, to analyze Agricultural Machinery Total Power by establishing ARIMA model in China. The result shows that ARIMA model not only suit the character of non - steady time series of Agricultural Machinery Total Power, but also provides ideal forecast effect, ARIMA （2, 2, 2） model forecasts the mean percent error between numerical number and actual numerical number from 1982 to 2005 which has only 1. 009% , it can be used to forecast and analyze Agricultural Machinery Total Power in china.