人民币实际有效汇率调整及其波动率与中美贸易收支

Analysis on the Relationship Between Sino-U.S. Trade Balance and the Adjustment of RMB Effective Exchange Rate Level and Volatility

基于1995年1月至2007年9月的月度数据,分析了人民币实际有效汇率与中美贸易收支的关系。结果显示,人民币汇率波动率增加有助于缩小中美贸易收支顺差,人民币汇率升值无论长期或是短期,都不能解决中美双边贸易收支失衡问题。美国经济增长引致的进口需求是中美贸易顺差和我国收入增长的重要原因,在当前经济形势下,要警惕美国经济下滑导致我国的出口下降,进而使我国经济出现"硬着陆"的风险。

Based on the monthly data from January 1995 to September 2007, this paper examines the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and Sino-U.S. trade balance. The paper suggests that, the volatility of RMB exchange rate is helpful for narrowing China＇s trade surplus with the United States. Even if China appreciates its currency against the U.S. dollar, the U. S. trade deficit cannot be improved. U.S. continuing economic expansion plays a leading role in China＇s trade surplus and thus its economic growth. It is necessary to keep an eye on the possibility that U.S. potential contraction may drag China into recession as a result of the slowdown of Sino-U.S. trade balance.