“双轨制”利率传导机制的实施效应

The Effect of the Implementation of the "Dual Track" Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism

运用协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析等实证研究方法,对1998年1月～2008年3月我国管制利率和市场利率的传导效应进行比较研究。研究结果表明,二者在与货币政策目标变量的长期关系、对货币政策目标变量影响的显著性以及影响方向等方面均存在明显差异。

Adopts co-integration analysis, Granger Causality Tests, Impulse Response Function （IFR）and other empirical methods, compares the transmission effect of the administered interest rate and the market interest rate during January 1998 to March 2008 in China. The empirical research indicates that the administered interest rate and the market interest rate have differences in the long-term relationship with the target variants of monetary policy, in the influences on the target variants of monetary policy as well as in the orientation of influences on the target variants of monetary policy.