世界能源市场的发展变化

The Development of World Energy Markets

国际能源机构的调查结果表明:目前世界石油需求表现为快速增长的势头,但石油市场供需仍能保持“脆弱的平衡”,由于库存量低,无论供需哪一方面出现一些事端,都会使近期石油市场失去平衡。中长期石油市场发展趋势表明,石油需求特别是运输燃料需求的增长将主要集中在亚洲地区,而石油供应的主要角色是中东产油国。到2010年世界上40％的一次能源需求将由石油来满足,石油仍将是主要的能源形式。非经合组织国家在世界石油平衡中的地位越来越重要,从现在到2010年,世界石油需求增长量的60％将来自非经合组织国家,因而非经合组织国家未来的能源需求模式将是世界长期能源需求的决定因素。

Oil markets are currently 'tenuously balanced', as rapidly growing demand is being met by strong supply growth. With low inventories, small events on either side of the equation can quickly tip the balance and an unbalanced acceleration of either supply or demand trends could destabilize near-term oil markets. Trends over the medium and longer term suggest a concentration of demand growth in the Asian region, particularly in transportation fuels, and a dominant role for Middle East supplies. Oil will continue its dominance in primary energy, with 40% of total world energy demand met with oil in 2010. Non-OECD countries have become increasingly important in the world oil balance. From today to 2010, around 60% of the growth will occur in countries outside of the OECD, and the future pattern of energy demand in the non-OECD countries will be a determining factor of long-term global energy demand.