摘要
在现有的尝试-重购模型的基础上,本文构建了一个更加合理的logit形式的尝试-重购模型。发展出一套适用于该模型的估计方法和检验方法,并用Monte Carlo随机模拟实验对此方法的有效性进行验证。经检验,随着样本数据量的增加和样本标准差的减小,无论是模型参数的估计误差,还是单参数显著性检验的效力,以及犯第一类错误的可能性都表现出合理的变化趋势。该模型可以用于快速消费品新产品的销量预测和营销组合分析。
Based on the existing trial--repeat diffusion model, a nonlinear model is developed by modeling the trial rate and the repeat purchase rate as logit functions of marketing--mix variables. A nonlinear iteration least square（NILS）estimator is also proposed for the purpose of model building and testing. Results of Monte Carlo experiment indicate the validity of this estimation. This new model can be used for sales predicting and marketing--mix analysis of new product.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
2008年第6期105-111,共7页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
